Miner – Leh: return match forecast, advance to the next round of the Conference League

19 March will be the return match between Shakhtar Donetsk and Lech Poznan as part of the UEFA Conference League. After the victory 3:1 in the first meeting, the Donetsk club received a serious advantage before the return game. Formally, the match is considered a home match for Shakhtar, however, due to the ongoing war, the Ukrainian team will again hold a European Cup meeting in Poland. We analyze the layouts before the match, bookmaker odds and team chances of reaching the next round of the tournament.

Match:
Shakhtar Donetsk — Lech Poznan
Tournament: UEFA Conference League
Date: 19.03.2026, 22:00

First match score: 3:1 in favor of Shakhtar.

Odds (according to the screenshot)

Advance to the next round

• Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.03
• Lech Poznan - 9.00

Match result

• Shakhtar's victory - 1.98
• Draw - 3.71
• Lech's victory - 3.85

Double chance

• 1X — 1.27
• 12 — 1.29
• X2 — 1.84

Insight rate

• "Miner" won 7 from the latest 9 home matches. According to VBet

Return match context

Despite the status of a home game, in fact, the match will again take place in Poland. Ukrainian clubs continue to play European Cup matches at neutral stadiums due to wars in Ukraine. Nevertheless, logistics and fan support are still closer to Shakhtar.

After victory 3:1 in the first game the Donetsk club received a serious advantage. Enough to advance to the next round:

• draw,
• any defeat by one goal.

Lech needs the minimum for a comeback 2:0, to send the match into extra time (The away goals rule no longer applies).

Tactical analytics

1. Careful football from Shakhtar
When counting 3:1 the coaching staff will almost certainly rely on controlling the game and quick counterattacks. The Ukrainian club may deliberately give the ball to the Poles, playing number two.

2. Pressure from Lech
The Polish team will have to go forward from the first minutes. This increases the risk of free zones in defense, what Shakhtar traditionally knows how to use.

3. Valid ending of the first meeting
The first match held tension for a long time: Lech tried to turn the game around, but in the end, Shakhtar managed to put the pressure on the opponent and increase the advantage to two goals. It was this third goal that significantly changed the balance before the return match.

Possible match scenario

The most likely picture:

• Lech starts actively and tries to score an early goal.
• Shakhtar plays compactly and catches the opponent on counterattacks.
• over time, the pressure of the Poles will increase, but there are also risks for their defense.

According to bookmaker odds, Shakhtar remains the favorite (1.98 to win), and the likelihood of the Ukrainian team passing is assessed as almost guaranteed (1.03).

Forecast: careful match with few goals. Possible options - 1:1 or 2:1 in favor of Shakhtar, which will finally secure the Donetsk club’s entry into the next round of the Conference League.